October 07 WAR

October 2007, World Apple Report Highlights

Rosy Outlook for 2007-08
In the 2007-08 season apple growers around the world are likely to benefit from miscellaneous weather events that have reduced production in areas as diverse as Eastern Europe, the Shaanxi province in China and the Southeastern United States. Production of competing crops is likely to be higher than last year, but still below normal levels. Prices for fresh apples should maintain the profitable levels enjoyed in 2006-07. Processing prices, depressed almost continuously since China's explosion onto the world apple juice scene in the late 1990s, should rise sharply in 2007-08.

Permanent Shift in Apple Demand
Sustained higher prices for fresh apples have led some observers to conclude that there has been a permanent shift upward in demand for fresh apples. Such a shift would require either that consumers were willing to pay more for the same quantity of apples or that they were willing to buy greater quantities at the same price. However, this conclusion can be quickly dismissed for western Europe where higher prices have been accompanied by declining per capita consumption. The evidence is less clear cut for North America where per capita consumption has held steady as apple prices have risen. However, short supplies of many competing fruits meant that their prices rose even faster than apple prices. The real test will come if and when supplies and prices of competing fruits return to more normal levels.

Challenge from Superfoods
Since the publication of the 2004 book, Superfoods Rx, by Dr Steven Pratt, there has been much marketing excitement about the promotion of superfoods, foods that can make one or more claims to have a powerful, beneficial effect on human health. Other health gurus have published their own lists of superfoods. These usually include items like blueberries, broccoli, oats, oranges, spinach and yogurt. The marketing challenge for traditional items like apples and pears is that retailers have begun to promote, and consumers have begun to substitute, so-called superfoods for apples and pears. Traditional items need to find ways to maintain their customers against the inroads from superfoods.

Special Statistics

Superfoods: Alternative Lists (table).
International Market Trends, Interseasonal Price Comparisons (table).
United States: Imports of CAJ from China, 2004-07 (chart).
EU-15: Imports of Concentrated Apple Juice, 2005-07 (chart).

The authoritative guide to the world apple business today.

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