September 06

October 2006, World Apple Report Highlights

Modest World Apple Crop in 2006
Apple supplies in many major producing areas around the world are expected to be lower for the 2006 harvest. This is especially true in much of Europe and North America. China's forecast remains the wild card, ranging from 21.1 to 24.5 million metric tons. The final Chinese figure will determine whether world production falls below or exceeds 60 million metric tons, the level first reached in 2004. The disposition of production in major markets suggests that prices will generally be better in the 2006-07 season and that demand for Southern Hemisphere imports should be healthy in Spring 2007.

Location Becomes More Contentious
Location was once the dominant influence on the success of apple production and marketing. It was the focal point of producer and shipper loyalty and the locus of many cooperative marketing efforts. That influence has been weakened by the increasing globalization of apple production and trade, by the demands of large, multinational retailers, and by the breakdown of links between specific varieties and specific locations. In a backlash against globalization, some activists are now demanding that retailers source more local products. Some producers may be able to get preferential treatment because of their location, but most will have the survival of most will depend on their ability to compete with the best suppliers from anywhere else in the world.

Can Eastern Europe Stage a Comeback?
Many of the countries of Eastern Europe were trapped for forty years in a centrally planned system that mandated what products would be produced and where. When that system collapsed in the early 1990s, perennial crops such as apples lost key infrastructure and assured markets and many fell into disarray. These countries have made the transition to free market economies at varying rates. Some have been able to rescue established orchards, while some have been able to initiate new plantings with new varieties and technologies. Entry into the European Union of many of these countries has made them more optimistic about the prospects for a comeback. While some progress is being made, it is too early yet to tell which producing districts or countries will be most successful in establishing a sustainable apple industry.

Special Statistics
Eastern Europe: Major Apple Producing Countries, Selected Years (Table).
International Market Trends, Interseasonal Price Comparison, 2005-06 v 2004-05 (table).
EU-15: Fresh Apple Imports from the Southern Hemisphere, January-June 2004, 2005 and 2006 (table).

The authoritative guide to the world apple business today.

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