FebruaryWAR 2010

February 2010, World Apple Report Highlights

World Apple Crop to Rise
This article presents forecasts of world apple production for 2010, 2015 and 2020 and compares it with production in 2005. World apple production is expected to continue upward, exceeding 80 million metric tons by 2020. However, the good news is that per capita supplies will flatten out between 2015 and 2020. China is likely to remain the most powerful single influence on world apple supplies, increasing its production to 35 million metric tons by 2020. Growth of apple production will tend to be slowest in more developed countries, but growth rates will be above average in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia.

World Variety Forecasts to 2020
A companion article looks at the trends by variety for the major producing countries for which data are available. These represent about 80 percent of world production. China's production of Fuji could exceed 23 million metric tons by 2020. In the rest of the world, varietal changes will be more modest. Golden Delicious and (Red) Delicious are likely to remain in first and second place, with Gala/Royal Gala a close third. However, by 2020, just ten varieties will continue to account for 75 percent of apples outside China. The many newer varieties that are being sponsored by clubs will remain relatively unimportant because of their policy of limiting production.

Natural Gas Bonanza
Soaring oil prices between 2004 and 2008 re-awoke fears that the world was running out of energy. It triggered a wave of energy conservation measures and ambitious policies to promote alternative, renewable energy sources. However, massive sources of natural gas have been discovered under a large belt that runs through the Eastern United States. New fracturing technology will permit that natural gas to be tapped in large quantities. The new finds are located in areas that already have existing networks of refineries and pipelines that will allow rapid delivery to major population centers. Various obstacles could arise to slow the exploitation of these resources. However, their existence reduces worry that the world will soon run out of usable energy.

Special Statistics

World: Apple Production, Actual 2005 and Forecast 2010, 2015 and 2020 (table).
United States: Change in Real Household Incomes, 2004-2008 (chart).
World, excluding China: Major Apple Varieties, 2010, 2015 and 2020 (table).
Costco Illustrates Retail Pressures (chart).
China: Per Capita Household Income, Urban and Rural, 1990-2008

The authoritative guide to the world apple business today.

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