February 07

February 2008, World Apple Report Highlights

Megatrends Affecting Agriculture
Being able to understand and forecast megatrends affecting agriculture are vital tools in preparing your firm for the future. This article examines the accuracy of some past forecasts of megatrends and looks at some of the megatrends being forecast for the next decade. Some forecast trends have turned out as expected while others have been derailed by unanticipated influences. However, there is broad agreement about forces that are already under way that will gather steam in the next few years and to which prudent firms will need to adjust.

World Variety Forecasts to 2015
Each year in its February issue, the World Apple Report forecasts world trends in apple varieties for a decade ahead. Total world apple production is expected to top 72 million metric tons by 2015. Golden Delicious and Red Delicious will remain the top two varieties in the world outside China through 2015. However, Gala/Royal Gala will come a close third. Fuji and Granny Smith will be a distant fourth and fifth. Most older varieties will experience some shrinkage in their market shares. Existing club varieties will account for less than 3.5 percent of the total by 2015, but many other promising varieties are waiting in the wings.

Market Niches for Different Varieties
This article summarizes AC Nielsen data relating to expenditures by different demographic groups on seven different apple variety categories, Gala, Golden Delicious, Granny Smith, McIntosh, Red Delicious, all other varieties and all varieties combined. Expenditure by each demographic was compared to the average expenditure. For example, expenditure on Granny Smith apples was significantly higher among young, high-income females with kids under six. Expenditure for most varieties was higher for older, higher income, professional females. McIntosh was an exception in having higher expenditure among less well-educated, blue-collar workers.

Special Statistics

Number of Stores with Ads for Fresh Fruits and Fresh Vegetables,
by Week, 2007-08 (table).
World: Apple Production, 2007, 2010 and 2015 (table)
World, excluding China: Major Apple Varieties (table)
World, excluding China: Volume of Major Apple Varieties (table)
Weighted Average Advertised Prices for Key Fruits and Vegetables,
by Week, 2007-08 (table).
France: Retail Prices in 2002-2007 Show the Challenge of Adding Value
For Major Fresh Fruits (table).

The authoritative guide to the world apple business today.

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