February 07

February 2007, World Apple Report Highlights

World Apple Production and Variety Trends to 2015
This article presents the latest forecasts of trends in global apple production to the year 2015 and the share likely to be supplied by the top 35 major varieties. Despite some reduction in apple acreage, increasing productivity on the remaining acreage is likely to lead to an increase in apple production of about 18 percent in both China and the rest of the world between 2006 and 2015. World apple production should reach 71 million metric tons by 2015. Recent varietal trends such as a declining share for Red Delicious and Golden Delicious and an increasing share for Gala/ Royal Gala, Fuji, Braeburn and Cripps Pink/ Pink Lady® are likely to continue. There will continue to be widespread commercial trials of newer varieties that might one day challenge the majors. However, because many of these new varieties are under some form of managed growth, they will remain niche varieties through 2015. Expect China to become a more active player in new varieties and international variety alliances.

Online Shopping Surges
The business media have been reporting a powerful surge in online shopping even while sales at bricks and mortar stores have been sluggish. Many factors have made online shopping easier and more attractive. More and more young people are also spending substantial time online in what is politely known as "social networking." Major companies such as Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Procter & Gamble, Nike and Wendys are trying to follow the young people onto those sites both to build relationships and to build sales. Where does the produce industry, and especially the apple industry stand with respect to these major social changes among their future customer base? How can they avoid being bypassed by future core customers?

Italy Faces Global Threats
This article reviews trends in the last two decades in production, prices, imports and exports of Italy's deciduous fruit industry. Total area in production of deciduous fruit has held firm, but production has been static because of weak productivity. In contrast, area in apple production has fallen but sharp rises in productivity have helped production to remain steady. Both exports and imports have risen, but Italy still is a large net exporter of apples and other deciduous fruits. Among future challenges is the fact that Italian costs of production are relatively high but most of its sales are into markets where price discounters are dominant. The industry is gambling that it can offset high costs by adding value through use of new varieties and of public and private marks of quality.

Special Statistics
World Apple Production, 2006, 2010 and 2015, 1000 metric tons (table).
World, excluding China, Major Apple Varieties, Share of Total (percent) (table).
Italy: Key Production Statistics of Major Deciduous Fruits, 1985-87, 1994-96 and 2003-05 (table).
Italy: Key Trade Statistics of Major Deciduous Fruits, 1985-87, 1994-96 and 2002-04 (table).
Washington State: Apple Acreage, by Variety, Selected Years (table).
United States: Certified Organic Acreage in Fruits, 1997-2005 (chart).

The authoritative guide to the world apple business today.

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