August 09

August 2009, World Apple Report Highlights

Is Indulgent Society in Retreat?
For much of the 1990s and 2000s, markets in the rich world enjoyed steady, if not always spectacular, growth. Many consumers saw the value of their homes, assets and pensions rise steadily without much effort on their part. Convinced of the permanency of their good fortune, they adopted increasingly indulgent life styles in housing, shopping, travel and entertainment. In food and beverages, they supported exotic cuisines and premium products. The global recession of 2008-09 has badly rattled consumers' confidence. Many have responded by becoming increasingly cautious and frugal in their spending, especially on food. This article examines evidence on consumers' new frugality and the potential lessons for the apple industry.

Challenge of Aging Global Population
Total world population is expected to increase by 3.2 billion (50 percent) between 2000 and 2050. In the same period, the population 65 and older is expected to triple. The aging will be even more pronounced in many rich, developed countries. This has enormous implications for national wealth, public policy, health care, pensions, immigration, consumption, markets and trade. On present trends, it will reduce average productivity, slow income growth, lower private consumption expenditure and place greater demands on the public purse. The working population will bear an increasing burden of caring for the elderly, and that will reduce spending on consumption goods. The present battle over health care is just a precursor of many future policy battles involving the growing elderly population.

EU Orchards Shrinking
The European Union has just released the results of its first ever survey of orchards in all 27 member countries. Comparisons are possible with previous surveys only for the original 15 member countries. In 2007, the EU-27 had over 880,000 hectares of deciduous fruits, more than half in apples and one-eight in table pears. The New Member States were mainly apple producers and accounted for almost 60 percent of apple acreage. They are likely to place an increasing role in the EU apple picture. The EU-15 lost over 10 percent of its acreage of table apples, and table pears between 2002 and 2007. Acreage of cooking apples fell by almost 50 percent, and of cooking pears by over 20 percent. Related evidence suggests that productivity in the surviving orchards has increased.

Special Statistics

World: Population Total and 65 and Older, 2000, 2025 and 2050 (table).
European Union: Area in Major Deciduous Fruits, 2007 (table).
EU-15: Area in Major Deciduous Fruits, 2002 and 2007 (table).
Japan: Retail Sales, Food and Non-food, 1999-2009 (chart).
China: Year-to-Year Changes in the Value of Exports and Imports, Jan 2008-May 2009 (chart).

The authoritative guide to the world apple business today.

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