Megatrends Affecting Agriculture August 08

Megatrends Affecting Agriculture
John Naisbitt popularized the term "Megatrends" in his 1982 best-seller of the same name. In his view, megatrends were large social, economic, political or technological changes that had the power to affect individuals and societies for a decade or more in the future. Naisbitt followed up in 1990 with "Megatrends 2000", co-authored with Patricia Aburdene.

A quarter century later, many strategic planners continue trying to identify or forecast the megatrends likely to affect their future environment. They reason that those who best forecast the future will have a competitive advantage in their lives, their careers, their businesses and their communities.

Limitations of Megatrend Analysis
It is necessary to admit at the outset that the choice or ranking of megatrends will depend heavily on the past education, experience and skill of different analysts and on the dimensions of the world in which they are interested. Where you can get to will be heavily influenced by where you start. For example, a nuclear physicist, an economist or a pastor may care about quite different dimensions. That said, there will be many common concerns within agriculture about the megatrends agriculture may face.

How Accurate Have Past Megatrend Forecasts Been?
In his 1982 book, Naisbitt listed among the ten major trends the shifts from an industrial society to an information society, from forced technology to a trade-off between "High tech and High touch", and from focus on a national economy to the world economy. He forecast a movement from hierarchies to networking, from North (developed countries) to South (developing countries) and from simple choices to multiple options.

The only one of these trends that one might question is the belief that each advance in technology (high tech) would trigger an offsetting trend towards personal expression (high touch). One might argue that people's lives have become even more absorbed in the high tech world of computers, internet, cell phones, I-pods, etc., without much compensating growth in high touch activities.

Naisbitt also forecast a shift in focus from short term to long term, from centralization to decentralization, from institutional help to self-help and from representative democracy to participatory democracy. However, government, many businesses, the stock market and other institutions have in many cases become more focused on the short term and more centralized. Citizens have resisted any reduction in institutional help from government programs. In addition, the increased participation in the democratic process has been dominated by well-organized, activist groups rather than by genuine grassroots efforts.

The Millenial Megatrends
In Megatrends 2000, Naisbitt and Aburdene highlighted a further ten trends. They were on target in forecasting the booming global economy of the 1990s, the rise of global lifestyles and cultural nationalism, the decade of women in leadership, the age of biology and the religious revival of the new millennium. Admittedly, the religious revival has been strongest in the United States and in Islamic countries.

However, one might quibble with their forecast of a renaissance in the arts, the emergence of free-market socialism, the privatization of the welfare state, the rise of the Pacific Rim or the triumph of the individual. Resurgence in the arts has been dwarfed by the growing popularity of mass sports and entertainment. Socialism has largely been abandoned in many former communist countries. The Pacific Rim received a severe setback after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, from which it has still not fully recovered.

Many individuals would agree that their range of choice in goods and services has increased but their freedoms have been impinged by increased security measures, invasive information systems, identity theft and other intrusions on privacy. Most individuals feel little triumph in a world still dominated by large political, economic and business forces.

Megatrends Affecting Agriculture
Futurist Dr Lowell Catlett of New Mexico State University sees five megatrends shaping agriculture's future in the twenty-first century.

Transition from a production-driven to a consumption-driven world. More and more consumers have moved from just getting by to having a choice about how to spend their growing incomes.
World wealth. In the past 15 years, disposable income around the world has seen the fastest rise in history. This will have a major influence on what foods nations consume.
Bottom-up Biology. Genetic engineering is allowing greater effectiveness and precision in fighting human, animal and plant diseases and pests with fewer negative side effects. New foods can be tailored to meet specific consumer health needs.
Bubbling. More and more citizens, urban and rural, will have access to wireless technology. For example, it will be possible for humans to control many farm operations from their office.
Remote intelligence. Many devices already exist to collect intelligence remotely in real time. That intelligence will be applied to automatically adjust farm operations. For example, operation of equipment could be adjusted in the presence of endangered wildlife.

Catlett argues that these changes will slash production costs, boost efficiency and pave the way for new standards of environmental stewardship. They will also provide opportunities for smart farmers to identify and supply emerging market niches in response to growing consumer choice.

Megatrends Affecting Extension Programs
In a recent paper, Dr James Novak of Auburn University discussed megatrends driving change within the U.S. Cooperative Extension Service. However, his comments are relevant to extension programs throughout the world. Novak highlights a basic struggle between values, beliefs and facts. He argues that today extension education programs and analyses by economists based on and around facts are less appreciated, and for that reason are much more needed.

Among key trends facing extension educators are that farmers are getting older, more concentrated, more specialized, better educated and wealthier, so they can hire the expertise they need and do not need to depend on public resources. Concentration in production is being accompanied by concentration on the buying side, so farmers still have little market power. They are dependent on multinational corporations and on global markets for both inputs and outputs.

Like Catlett, Novak recognizes the impact of the biotechnology revolution, including bioenergy, on farmers, but he also notes that use of biotechnology often makes farmers more dependent on global corporations in terms of fees paid and restrictions imposed on how inputs can be used.

Novak notes changes in the federal funding and budgets for research and extension. Federal agencies have become grantors of funds, frequently for competitive grants, rather than supportive partners. At the state level, planning and programming have moved from "grassroots up" to "top down". Personnel have been reassigned from traditional agricultural duties. These trends, he argues, have reduced the effectiveness of extension programs. At the same time, Novak sees the emergence of global climate change and other environmental challenges as offering extension workers new opportunities and a need for new partners.

Megatrends Affecting Economic Development
David McFadden of the Yakima County Development Association, in a recent paper, noted some similar trends affecting economic development agencies in rural areas. The ubiquity of the internet and the spread of the knowledge-driven economy means that potential firms can weigh international options in deciding where to locate. Environmental issues such as sustainability are significant factors in choice. Increasing ethnic diversity is both a challenge and an opportunity in recruiting certain firms. And, increasingly, attracting firms will require new forms of partnership both within regions and between regions.

Vive La Difference
This quick summary shows that forecasting megatrends is far from an exact science. Some trends turn out as expected, while others are derailed by unanticipated influences. There is considerable consensus about the megatrends that are likely to affect agriculture, rural areas and rural institutions in the next few years. None of the experts purport to know which of these trends will be most important or how rapidly they will be felt. However, they agree that there is a broad portfolio of changes that will continue to disrupt the world as we know it. They would all argue that success in any sphere is more likely to go to those who recognize and prepare for megatrends rather than to those who ignore them.

From the World Apple Report, February 2008.

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